Starting Saturday and concluding on Tuesday will be the first and second rounds of the NCAA Division I women’s tournament.
This also signifies the end of an era in the tournament’s history that has prompted just as much shuddering, frustration and head-scratching as the selection committee’s annual unveiling of the bracket.
But amid the usual howls of disbelief — South Carolina a 1 seed over Stanford? Louisville a 3? SEC teams with losing conference records getting in over Rutgers and South Florida? — ought to come a welcome moment of closure.
Because this will be the last time the so-called “predetermined” format will be used for the early stages of the tournament. Next year, the subregionals will revert to their pre-2003 venues, on the home floors of the top 16 tournament seeds.
I say welcome because it’s been obvious to everyone except those who believe parity can be created through the tournament selection process that this format has not achieved anything close to the desired results.
And when it does — such as a high seed losing on the home floor of a lower seed — more questions are raised about the fairness of that.
Many of the elite programs that would have hosted under the old format have continued to so do during the bidding process of the last dozen years. Among this year’s hosts are Connecticut, Tennessee, Duke, North Carolina, Purdue, Maryland, Texas A & M, Penn State and Baylor, top 16 seeds who have been in this role before. Only three of the 16 venues, in fact, do not include home teams. Kentucky, a No. 3 seed, will be a first-time subregional host.
What’s different this year is the NCAA’s decision to stage regionals on home floors in a one-shot deal, mainly to sell tickets. Top seed South Carolina will have to go, and stay, out West, to Seattle and Stanford, while another No. 1 seed, Notre Dame opens in Toledo and would return to South Bend. The other No. 1 seeds, Tennessee and UConn, will start out at home, then might have to beat hosts Louisville and Nebraska, respectively, in the regionals.
This incongruity has been the staple of the Age of Predetermination, as I have dubbed it, and it’s absolutely maddening that it’s been extended to the regional stage, if only for one season.
When schools purchase the right to host, they don’t know how their teams will be seeded, if they are selected at all. This year, two No. 2 seeds — West Virginia and Stanford — may have to win at LSU and Iowa State, respectively, and against those very teams, just to get to the Sweet 16.
Despite being a top 16 seed, Penn State has had to go to Baton Rouge the last two seasons, splittling with LSU in those games, and losing in the second round last year.
If the Mountaineers can avoid that fate, a regional matchup against Louisville at the KFC Yum! Center awaits, and it didn’t take long for Mike Carey to react to that scenario.
The Age of Predetermination has given us this problem before. In 2009, Auburn was a No. 2 seed, and got throttled by Rutgers 80-52 in Piscataway in a second round game (the Tigers, incidentally, have not gotten back to the NCAAs since).
That same year, Duke was a No. 1 seed and placed in a pod in East Lansing, where Michigan State was the host. Also in the second round, the Spartans scorched the Blue Devils and Joanne P. McCallie, their former coach, 63-49.
The selection committee has since altered its procedures to avoid that possibility, at least for No. 1 seeds. South Carolina, which was among the top 10 among national attendance leaders during the regular season, will have to take its show entirely across the country.
That’s because Gamecocks were penalized, if that’s the right word, for the decisions of state elected officials. Since 2001, the NCAA has banned any school in South Carolina from bidding for predetermined tournament sites in all sports because of the state’s Confederate battle flag.
Ironically, a team composed entirely of African-Americans and coached by Dawn Staley, an African-American, won’t get a chance to illustrate the stupidity of local political belligerence and demonstrate the multi-racial support it has received during a record-breaking season.
But with the switch to “merits-based” hosting for the women’s tournament, the loaded Gamecocks — who have only one senior — figure to be in Columbia this time next year
(Some civil rights leaders aren’t happy with this, however.)
But that’s next year.
This year has delivered another bracket that reflects how the women’s selection committee historically has chosen to hamstring the process. Predetermined sites is the most daunting component in this process.
But the NCAA demanded change in the wake of flat, if not sagging, attendance and television ratings detailed in the Ackerman report.
The move back to top seeds hosting is more about finances that “rewarding” top teams, which reopens another sore subject. In a sport that’s starving for more competitive balance, giving elite programs yet another advantage strikes some as imposing a different kind of unfairness.
The Age of Predetermination did give us some refreshing new venues, such as Albuquerque and Spokane, and New Mexico and Gonzaga remain among the attendance leaders. They’ve given some hope to those wishing to see a stronger mid-major presence during the NCAA tournament.
There are valid concerns about the plight of the mid-majors, and it’s probably worth a separate post in the coming days. There hasn’t been a mid-major in the Women’s Final Four since Jackie Stiles and Southwest Missouri State in 2001, although Xavier was a couple of missed layups away in 2010.
Football-fueled conference realignment in part is making this problem worse, as evidenced by the demise of the old Big East and the cold shoulder given to AAC teams by the men’s and women’s committees.
The Mountain West and Missouri Valley are essentially one-bid leagues, when in the recent past they’ve been represented by multiple teams. The Colonial and Conference USA also sent only their tournament winners, James Madison and Middle Tennessee. St. Joseph’s and BYU joined Dayton as at-large teams from the mid-majors, due to good RPIs, while Bowling Green and Southern Miss, which also had good overall numbers, were left out.
The matter of scheduling — and specifically, why quite a few BCS schools won’t play mid-majors during the season — is also a vexing issue, but it can’t be solved by the selection committee in March. (There are some mid-majors who like to schedule bottom-dwelling BCS teams to get a win and boost their RPI and SOS, but refrain from playing the really good power conference schools. This cuts both ways.)
The highest seed for mid-majors this year were the 6 seeds given to Gonzaga and Dayton. As the Age of Predetermination comes to an end, there’s plenty to be worried about going forward.
Predetermined sites was something that might have been worthwhile to try, but it’s just as well that its time has come.
