As a coach you have a tendency to never quite enjoy the beauty of the moment. Big wins, verbal commitments or even great signing days are generally tempered by that inherent need to look at the impact of that specific event on what might be coming next. With the fall signing period underway, half of the excitement recruiters will feel is how they perceive “this” class will influence the “next” class…and of course…there’s always a next class.
Underclass recruits and those surrounding them should be doing the same. A large part of the basketball personality of any school you might be considering will be the make-up of the roster and there’s no better place to start interpreting that on court profile than with their latest signing class. There is a multitude of ways to look at each group of signees and how it might relate to you should you choose to join the party when your own day comes.
The obvious initial assessment would generally come from how the whole class is perceived. These players could potentially be your teammates for anywhere from one to four seasons. Your first instinct might be to look at the rankings that are published of signing classes. They might seem to be a nice resource but be extraordinarily careful in just how much stock you put into something that is nothing more than biased opinion and entertainment. Ranked signing classes are in no way a guarantee of success and have their basis in subjective class rankings provided for paid subscribers. Subscribers whose classes they coincidentally will be ranking. There is some element of validity there but in no way should it be taken as absolute gospel on the strength of a class.
If you’ve done your recruiting homework and been productive in your communication with the coaching staff, you should know who and what they were looking to sign in their next class. With verbal commitments coming so early these days you should already have an idea if they’re being successful but once the ink is dry on the NLI’s you’ll still need to step back and look at things as a whole. At that point it will be easier to assess whether or not their efforts provided the roster results they were hoping for. If they were focused on signing a point guard but will have to go shopping again to find the answer…not so good. If they told you their “top recruits” were players A, B and C and they got two out of three…that’s a great batting average. In this case mid-term grades in November generally indicate how a coaching staff will ultimately do on their finals come April.
The class make up is an interesting element to signing period results. From the perspective of a high school junior or sophomore you have to look at just how many members of a signing class might still be around to suit up with you and for how many seasons. Not everybody comes in as a freshman. As an underclass recruit, JC players may play just one year with you or possibly not even at all. Transfers have to sit out a required year of residency so their first game action might not come until the same night as your debut. You just need to know how many years of eligibility they have remaining when they arrive on their new campus. All coaches generally prefer four year athletes but that doesn’t mean junior college players and transfers are automatically a negative. At the same time, a program making a living off JC’s and transfers warrants closer scrutiny as to why the unending revolving door approach. Constant turnover and the concept of stability don’t always go hand in hand. It also challenges the ability to develop chemistry and that true team culture.
The size of a signing class can also be a red flag. No coach in their right mind actually wants six, seven or eight players in a single class. Sometimes injuries intervene and derail even the best laid plans leading to imbalance on the roster. At the same time transfers, academic casualties, dismissals or simply poor recruiting efforts can lead to the necessity of a large class. If one of the schools you’re considering is having to recruit with a Sam’s Club bulk approach, you’ve got some questions to ask. Conversely, if you understood them to be looking to sign three or four prospects and they have an only child or strike out in the fall period, proceed with great caution.
From an individual standpoint, prospects need to look at a signing class with their own opportunity in mind. Ask yourself how your game fits into the mix with returning roster members and the signing class in front of you. If you’re a point guard and your commitment gives them two in back to back classes, eventually someone’s not going to be happy. If you’re on the wing or in the post it’s obvious they’ll need more depth but you need to do the math…divide how many players by available minutes. Coaches recruit role players and athletes that they never envision in their starting line-up. There’s nothing wrong with that, but they need to be sharing that perception with prospects up front. And if they tell you that they see you playing in front of those that just signed with them, imagine what they’ll be telling recruits about you in the class after you sign.
In the recruiting process you have to familiarize yourself with the play of verbal commitments and signees to the schools you’re considering. It’s important to look closely at a program’s style of play and the game that their latest signees bring to the floor. Is there consistency in what they do and what they’re recruiting…or is the coach looking to go a different direction? You have to do the same with your own game. Does your game mesh with both the program’s history and the newest additions to their roster? Coaches recruiting players who don’t fit what they’ve traditionally done are either looking to change their style…or planning to change the game of their signees. Neither strategy is one to have confidence in without in-depth conversation and explanation. If it’s not broke, you don’t fix it.
Top tier athletes don’t generally have to worry too much about their own role when evaluating signing classes. However, they absolutely need to consider just who their potential teammates might be. If a top ten post loves a particular school with stats demonstrating a history of turnover epidemics yet their signing class included some mystery guards, it might be wise to hold off on that commitment just a tad bit longer. Each prospect needs to look at the younger part of an existing roster and the latest additions to see if there are any big holes in the arsenal. If you happen to be the answer to a deficiency…great. You may well be the final piece to the puzzle. If something else is lacking and there’s no solution in sight, you have to ask just how much faith you have in their future recruiting efforts.
Be careful overreacting to any program’s recruiting success. Just because it’s the right school for another prospect doesn’t mean that it’s the ideal setting for you as well. At the same time don’t be too quick to drop a program because of a tough signing period. Recruiting is an ongoing process and those JC’s and transfers can still change the perspective down the road. There are a multitude of other elements in any recruiting decision. Evaluating signing classes is just one aspect of the basketball end of things. They offer a revealing view into the direction of a program, the caliber of athletes and people they’re recruiting plus an opportunity to find out just where coaches see you in the scheme of the things moving forward. In the end you’re looking for that right “fit” on and off the floor. Leave no stone unturned.
