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Paul Nilsen

Ultimate Women’s Olympic Preview: Upsides, Downsides, Outlook For Every Nation

TOKYO, JAPAN – The Women’s Olympic Basketball Tournament isn’t set to be unique only because of the Covid-19 Pandemic, it is looking like it will give an unprecedented opportunity for no fewer than 8 teams to realistically challenge for the podium.

(All Photos – FIBA.com)

Of course, USA will be the overwhelming favorites, even if things didn’t go to plan in the Las Vegas prep games with not just one, but two losses against the WNBA All-Stars and Australia respectively. Who else is in the running for the medals and what else should we look out for? Here’s the lowdown on the tournament.

THE BASICS

  • The tournament takes place between July 26 and August 8 in the Japanese capital, with 12 teams pitched into four groups. The games will take place mixed in with the men’s event, with a schedule that combines some women only days, some men only days and several mixed days with games from both competitions. The actual competition system is HERE, with the changes from past tournaments being an actual draw for the Quarter-Finals, those three groups of four instead of two groups of six – plus the fact you need to play six games, rather than eight to win the Olympic title.
  • As well as winning gold, whatever nation stands on the top step of the podium in Tokyo will also gain a direct spot for the FIBA Women’s Basketball World Cup 2023 along with host nation, Australia.
  • Reigning champions USA have dominated the competition during the past couple of decades and are aiming for a seventh successive title at what is the 12th edition of women’s basketball at the games. The USA are one of only three countries to have won gold, along with the Soviet Union (1976 and 1980) plus the Commonwealth of Independent States (1992)
  • Games will only be shown on television and online depending on the country where you live and which broadcasters have purchased the rights. The hashtags to use are #Tokyo2020 #Basketball together. Thankfully there is an Olympic Basketball LIVE BLOG running throughout the tournament which I will be contributing to.

GROUP A

CANADA (Olympic Appearances 6, Best Finish 4th in 1984)

Upsides – They have some excellent players in their starting five such as Kia Nurse, Natalie Achonwa and Nayo Raincock-Ekunwe. They were terrific in the FIBA Women’s Olympic Qualifying Tournaments in Ostend last year when they went unbeaten.

Downsides – Little if any preparation. Terrible showing of fourth place at the FIBA Women’s Americup in San Juan last month when some of their big-hitters did not step out. They don’t have a standout ball-handler.

Outlook – They must make the Semi-Finals to show progress under Coach Thomaidis, but, they are looking more likely to have to settle for the QF’s. Still, they are capable of medalling and it can’t be ruled out.

KOREA (Olympic Appearances 6, Best Finish 2nd in 1984)

Upsides – They have all their best players available, including WNBA player Ji Su Park. Watch out for young Hyejin Park too.

Downsides – They maybe don’t have the scoring potential to keep pace in a tough group. They have not won a global tournament game (Olympics or World Cup) since 2008.

Outlook – The aim will be to cause and upset and get an overdue victory on the board, but progressing beyond the Group phase looks a tall order and they should exit at the first hurdle.

SERBIA (Olympic Appearances 1, Best Finish 3rd in 2016)

Upsides – They have the momentum from their recent FIBA Women’s EuroBasket title success. They have a standout legend in Sonja Vasic who was Serbia’s flag bearer at the Opening Ceremony. They have depth, relentless defense, mental resilience, a great coach in Marina Maljkovic and know they can punch on this stage after that debut bronze give years ago in Rio.

Downsides – They may have used up too much physical and mental energy winning that European title last month as they had some epic games throughout the competition. They have also had virtually no prep games.

Outlook – If they play to their potential, they should be eying up a medal.

SPAIN (Olympic Appearances 4, Best Finish 2nd in 2016)

Upsides – They have a superb coach in Lucas Mondelo. Their marquee star Alba Torrens is back from Covid-19 after missing the FIBA Women’s EuroBasket recently. They have good defense, a super young star in Raquel Carrera, Maite Cazorla looks to be on form and of course, Astou Ndour with her inside game and extended shooting range.

 

Downsides – They are without three leaders in Marta Xargay, Laura Nicholls and Anna Cruz who have all retired or skipped and it is tough to replace that kind of experience. They lost a couple of close games at the FIBA Women’s EuroBasket and that is not a good habit to be in right now.

Outlook – Predictions for Spain vary wildly from exiting at the Quarter-Finals to others who think they have been written off too soon and can medal. It’s difficult to predict.

GROUP B

FRANCE (Olympic Appearances 2, Best Finish 2nd in 2012)

Upsides – They have a stacked roster, a beautiful balance of experience (Endy Miyem, Sandrine Gruda) and youth (Iliana Rupert, Marine Fauthoux), they can play slow or fast and have loads of game winners and one of the most entertaining players in the global game in Marine Johannes.

Downsides – They have now lost a truly staggering five consecutive European Finals, the latest coming last month when they were runaway favorites. It was a huge blow and especially mentally. Questions have been asked about head coach Valerie Garnier and whether France has the capacity to react to challenging situations.

Outlook – The should make the last four, but it will all hinge on how they react to that bitter setback at missing out on gold in Valencia last month.

JAPAN (Olympic Appearances 5, Best Finish 5th in 1976)

Upsides – They have a great coach in Tom Hovasse, they play like no other team in terms of their intensity and run and gun style. They sprint all over the court and that impacts on their opponents. They are seriously quick. They are playing at home. They are fun to watch.

Downsides – They have no home fans in the building as expected. They don’t have their leader Ramu Toksashiki who is out injured. They look short-handed under the basket.

Outlook – Some 18 months ago, Japan will have been a big medal favorite. Everything was going well. But Covid and injuries have wrecked that and while they could still do it, it looks a difficult task. But it would be a real fairytale with everything that has happened if they did get onto that podium.

NIGERIA (Olympic Appearances 1, Best Finish 11th in 2004)

Upsides – They have continued to cause surprises in past years and did great at the FIBA Women’s Basketball World Cup in Tenerife during 2018. Their core is very handy with some capable players and especially Ezinne Kalu, Victoria Macaulay and Adaora Elonu for example.

Downsides – They probably have the toughest group. Their prolific rebounder Evelyn Akhator is out injured. There has been a lot of distraction in the build up around requests for potential players (USA duo Williams and Ogwumike) swapping nationality which failed – rather than a focus on who is playing. They don’t look after the ball well.

Outlook – They could surprise and one FIBA Expert Panel member has them medalling. They can’t be ruled out but the loss of Akhator is major. Their starting five is very competitive but a lack of top level options off the bench means they may be most likely to suffer a group stage exit.

USA (Olympic Appearances 11, Best Finish 1st at 8 different editions)

Upsides – They have the best players, unrivalled depth, talent and experience. As well as that winning tradition when nobody normally gets anywhere close to them. Go figure.

Downsides – They lost those two prep games and even if only friendly games, it shows they are not invincible. Getting the rotations right with all that talent can still be a challenge.

Outlook – Reigning champions and also 2020 Champions in waiting.

GROUP C

AUSTRALIA (Olympic Appearances 8, Best Finish 2nd in 2000, 2004, 2008)

Upsides – They have some nice players like Leilani Mitchell, Bec Allen, Steph Talbot and a still-improving Ezi Magbegor. Their coach Sandy Brondello knows what it takes at this level. They can deliver an inside-outside game. They will possibly galvanise after the loss of Liz Cambage and got great confidence from the tight prep win against USA.

Downsides – They lost one of the world’s best players in Liz Cambage after her well publicized departure from the camp. All other issues aside, when you are into tournament crunch time, the best players love to step up in the big moments and not having her as a go-to or a distraction to draw defenses away from colleagues will be a major miss.

Outlook – As with Spain, there are wild variations and guesses for the Opals who looked like podium favorites with Cambage on board, but now it is in doubt. They should still target a medal.

BELGIUM (Olympic Appearances 0, Best Finish N/A)

Upsides – They have all their best players available, play great team basketball but framed around one of the best players on the planet in Emma Meesseman, playmaker Julie Allemand is getting better all the time, Coach Philip Mestdagh knows this team inside out, they are driven by missing out on the FIBA Women’s EuroBasket Final.

Downsides – There are questions still posed about what happens when marquee leader Meesseman is having an off night or well guarded by their opponents. They is still a question mark around their mental resilience in these biggest moments.

 

Outlook – Belgium could be anything. From making the Final on their Olympic debut to slipping out at the Quarter-Finals stage. They have to be on it early and locked in mentally. They are a great group of players and people, but have got to do that dirty work to be successful and the supporting cast must stand up firm.

CHINA (Olympic Appearances 8, Best Finish 2nd in 1992)

Upsides – They were superb when going unbeaten last year at the FIBA Women’s Olympic Qualifying Tournament in Belgrade – also beating Spain along the way. They have one of the best frontcourts in the competition with Ting Shao, Xu Han and Yueri Li, while Li Meng is a terrific do-it-all player on the wing.

Downsides – They don’t have a lot of experience or scoring power in the backcourt. They could be seriously undercooked as they have played nobody in preparation and not played a competitive game together for over a year.

Outlook – China can make the Semi-Finals if they are not too rusty and could medal. They have many young players who will debut and there is an element of the unknown, but overall it would be a disappointment not to make a deep run. They are dark horses for sure.

PUERTO RICO (Olympic Appearances 0, Best Finish N/A)

Upsides – They have nothing to lose as huge underdogs so while taking it seriously, there is no pressure and can enjoy this historic moment. They have scoring power in Jen O’Neill and Jazmon Gwathmey, with other players able to post cameos like Ali Gibson or Pamela Rosado for example. They can draw confidence from having made the FIBA Women’s Americup Final last month.

Downsides – They don’t have the talent, depth or experience to keep pace. They lost some prep games big.

Outlook – They will make history aby stepping out and that is likely where it will end. But they do have an amazing carrot in terms of potentially causing a seismic shock if they made more history by sneaking a first ever win.

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Paul Nilsen lives and breathes women’s hoops. He’s is a freelance writer working for the sport’s world governing body FIBA where he pens a weekly ‘Women’s Basketball Worldwide Column’ - as well as providing daily content on major club competitions, international tournaments and the women’s youth game. He has an extensive network of contacts across the globe, including an array of elite play-callers and players. Also a qualified coach and referee, he is a big supporter of Blue Star Media and joined as a blogger during the fall of 2016.

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